The Philadelphia 76ers punched their ticket to the 2024 NBA playoffs with a 105-104 victory over the Miami Heat on Wednesday in the play-in tournament. They’re now headed to the Big Apple to take on the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs.
The Knicks earned the No. 2 seed by finishing the season on a 13-5 surge. Their overtime victory over the Chicago Bulls on the final day of the regular season clinched it for them after the Orlando Magic blew out the Milwaukee Bucks, dropping them to third. To absolutely no one's surprise, Jalen Brunson led the way for the Knicks with 40 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in that game.
Brunson appears headed for his first-ever All-NBA team after averaging a career-high 28.7 points, 6.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.7 three-pointers per game for the Knicks. His three-level scoring ability is nearly second to none in the league, and he's learned how to manipulate defenses to get exactly what he wants.
Standing in his way will be the league's reigning MVP, Joel Embiid, although it's unclear how healthy he is. He's still working his way back from a torn meniscus, and he didn't look anywhere near as spry Wednesday after he tweaked that knee against the Orlando Magic a few days prior.
Those aren't the only factors that will decide this series, though. Let's dive into the three biggest ones.
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How Do The Sixers Guard Brunson?
The Sixers' best option to guard Brunson this series will likely sidelined. De'Anthony Melton has played only seven games since the calendar flipped to 2024 thanks to a back injury, and head coach Nick Nurse sounded pessimistic about his chances of returning and making an impact anytime soon.
That leaves some combination of Tyrese Maxey and Kyle Lowry to draw the Brunson assignment in the starting lineup, with Nicolas Batum, Kelly Oubre Jr. and even Buddy Hield as options to switch onto him well. If Brunson gets by any of those players, they'll likely have Embiid or Paul Reed behind them as a last line of defense.
Maxey, Lowry, Batum and Oubre all did an admirable job against Heat star Jimmy Butler on Wednesday, although the MCL sprain that Butler suffered late in the first quarter contributed to that as well. Nurse will undoubtedly want to keep changing matchups against Brunson to remain unpredictable and prevent him from getting into a rhythm.
Brunson's drive-and-kick ability will be something to watch, too. The Sixers have been relatively crisp on their defensive rotations under Nurse this season, but the Knicks have the shooters in Donte DiVincenzo, Bojan Bogdanovic and Miles McBride to make them pay if they aren't.
After Wednesday's win over the Heat, Maxey referred to Brunson as the "head of the snake" for the Knicks. The Sixers will undoubtedly base their defensive game plan around him. Whoever wins that matchup could go a long way toward deciding the series.
How Healthy Is Embiid?
Through three quarters of Wednesday's game against Miami, Embiid had 12 points on 3-of-12 shooting and as many turnovers as assists (three apiece). He appeared frustrated by Miami's zone and was a shell of his MVP-caliber self.
But after Nicolas Batum and Buddy Hield shot the Sixers back into the game, Embiid helped slam the door in the fourth quarter with 11 points on 3-of-5 shooting (including 2-of-2 from deep), four rebounds and two assists. He was a plus-six that quarter. The Sixers wound up winning by one.
Embiid finished the game with 23 points on 6-of-17 shooting, 15 rebounds, five assists and one steal in 38 minutes. After the game, Nurse sounded most encouraged about the big man making it through that many minutes unscathed.
"I think it's a good one to get under his belt with a big scene, a lot of intensity and a lot of minutes," he told reporters.
The combination of Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson will be awaiting Embiid in New York, with Precious Achiuwa sprinkled in if (when) he gets either one of them into foul trouble. The question is whether Embiid is physically compromised enough that they can guard him one-on-one or if the Knicks still have to shade help from elsewhere.
If the Knicks do send extra help at Embiid, he'll have to be on point with his vision and playmaking to find the open man. The series might largely hinge on how many of those shots the Sixers knock down.
Which Supporting Cast Shines Brightest?
With Julius Randle sidelined by a season-ending shoulder injury, the Knicks don't have another obvious star on their roster beyond Brunson. Anunoby is the closest thing to one, but he's more of a high-end three-and-D player who can elevate any roster because of his plug-and-play nature. Beyond that, the Knicks have mostly assembled rotation players who have embraced their respective roles.
DiVincenzo, Anunoby, Bogdanovic and McBride can all stroke it from deep. Hartenstein and Robinson give them toughness and high-level rebounding at center for all 48 minutes. And Josh Hart is an unfathomably strong rebounder for someone who's listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds. Together, they provide no reprieve for opponents on either end of the floor.
The Sixers arguably have the next-best star behind Brunson and Embiid in Maxey, who received his first All-Star nod this season. They're much more of a two-stars-and-depth model than the Knicks—who are far more heliocentric around Brunson at the moment—but their depth proved their value in the play-in game against the Heat.
Nicolas Batum saved the Sixers' season on Wednesday with six three-pointers and 20 points in total. Buddy Hield didn't have a great shooting night (seven points on 3-of-8 shooting), but he tied for the team lead with six assists. Kelly Oubre Jr. had 11 points and eight rebounds. Even Cam Payne chipped in a big three-pointer in his three minutes.
Stars often carry teams in the playoffs, but as Batum proved Wednesday night, unpredictable explosions from role players can swing games as well. Do we get a Donte DiVincenzo Game or a Buddy Hield Game? A Kelly Oubre Jr. Game or an OG Anunoby Game? How deep into their bench will each head coach go, and will either one play someone all 48 minutes? (Brunson or Hart would be the heavy favorites for that if so.)
The Prediction
Thibs' Knicks have been playing playoff-esque minutes for a while now, while Embiid is still ramping his way back into form after his meniscus tear. The Knicks might have the early advantage in this series as a result, but the Sixers' supporting cast proved against Miami that they can help carry the team even if Embiid and Maxey are having off nights.
The Knicks will present the Sixers with different challenges than Miami did, but perhaps more advantages as well. If Embiid is a husk of himself by the end of the series, the Knicks should cruise their way to victory, but the Sixers stand a real chance of pulling off the upset if he continues to round back into form with each passing game.
The series is currently a pick'em, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, which makes sense given the uncertainty regarding Embiid's health. Nurse's tactical acumen might be able to keep the Sixers afloat long enough for Embiid to get his playoff legs under him, though. At that point, all bets would be off.
Prediction: Sixers in six
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and all salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
